Understanding 推測 (すいそく)
推測 means "guess" or "conjecture" and is used when making an inference based on incomplete information. It is a formal noun often used in written or formal spoken Japanese.
Usage and Nuance
When you use 推測, you imply that your conclusion is not certain but based on reasoning or evidence you have. It is stronger than a casual guess (like かんじ or 予想) because it suggests some logical basis.
Common Collocations
- 推測する: to guess or infer
- 推測によると: according to the guess/conjecture
- 推測が的中する: the guess hits the mark (is correct)
These collocations are useful in conversations about analysis, investigations, or when discussing uncertain information.
Register and Politeness
推測 is neutral to formal and often appears in news reports, academic discussions, or business contexts. It is less common in casual daily conversation.
Learner Tip
Do not confuse 推測 with 単なる勘 (a mere hunch). 推測 implies some reasoning behind the guess. Use 推測 when you want to express an informed guess rather than a random guess.